This week’s post is going to be a bit different. Instead of my normal business breakdown, I am going to write about the European Championship Finals between Italy and England.
The game is this Sunday, July 11th at 12pm PT and it has all the makings of a classic match: two titans of the game, two historic nations steeped in history, two nations where soccer is woven into their culture.
What makes this match even more exciting than a normal final is the context of how these two teams made it to the final.
But first, this has been in my ear this week:
Let’s start with Italy - Avanti!
Italy has gone through a major metamorphosis over the last 3 years. After NOT qualifying for 2018 World Cup (first time since 1958), the Italian national team was in turmoil.
In order to start the rebuild they hired Roberto Mancini as the new head coach and he changed everything. The Italian national team has always been know for their structure, stout defense, and opportunistic offense. They were a rigid team and much like Italian culture steeped in tradition and unwilling to adapt to modern innovation. Mancini has CHANGED all of this.
Mancini added new wrinkles into the Italian’s classic playbook. The 2021 version of the Italian National soccer team now presses higher up the field, and their offense is much more fluid with progressive passing passing and freedom for their players to interchangeably change positions across the front 3.
Here are some metrics that support this new change:
Ciro Immobile, a forward, currently has 57 pressures in the Attacking 3rd (leads the team)
Marco Verratti, a central midfielder, currently has 10 Tackle Wins (leads the team)
Lorenzo Insigne, a forward, has passed the ball 248 times and over 50% of his passes are in the forward direction
Italy’s forwards, midfielders, and wing-backs are being aggressive. They have been given the freedom and confidence by Mancini to take risk higher up the pitch. They attack quickly with the ball, and if they lose it, they instantly pressure the defense.
Italy’s new style of soccer has led to 12 goals (2nd most of the tournament), 318 Attacks (2nd most), and only 3 goals conceded!
Italy is looking like a well oiled Ferrari.
Now onto England!
England is dying for a major trophy. They haven’t won anything since 1966! Even the USA has won more soccer trophies than them.
For such a soccer crazed country, they always choke in major tournaments. They have always had the talent but they have lacked team chemistry.
This team looks different though. It feels different.
They are world-class at each position and this group of players has been playing together since their youth national team experience.
This is the first England National Team that seems to have figured out how to play together. This isn’t a Lampard vs. Gerard conversation or having to play Scholes as a right winger.
Each player on this team knows their role and fits in that role: Declan Rice eats people up and gives the ball to more talented players, Sterling attacks defenders, and Kane scores goals. That’s it.
This is the first England team that I have watched that can truly “out pass” and “out class” other national teams. This isn’t your old ‘on a rainy night in Stoke” England National team that hits long balls all day - this team has class, creativity, and the ability to score beautiful goals.
Can England finally win a big tournament? Maybe.
The Game:
Potential Line Ups:
Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne
England: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Rice, Phillips; Saka, Mount, Sterling; Kane
Potential Formations:
Italy: 4-3-3
England: 4-2-3-1
This is a battle between soccer juggernauts.
This game is about the individual players. I don’t think this game is about who has the best game plan or the team’s formulations or when substitutes are made.
This game is about which player is going to seize their moment.
Can Insigne bring his magic again? Or Can Sterling initiate the attack like he did against Germany?
Here are some things to watch on Sunday:
Who will win the midfield? Both teams have fantastic midfield cohorts. England’s midfield structure of Rice, Phillips, Mount has everything you want: grit, talent, poise, work-rate, and class. Italy’s midfield is class as well with Barella, Jorginho, Verratti. But I think England has the slight advantage here and will probably dictate the pace of play.
Can Italy’s defense contain Sterling? I’m not sure. Raheem Sterling has a nightmare for defenders all tournament. He has an amazing 60% Dribble Success rate when attacking defenders (leads the tournament).
Spinazzola is hurt. How does Italy contain Sterling, Kane, and Saka without one of their fastest and best defenders?
Can Pickford have a clean game? The England goalkeeper is known for making errors and I think Italy’s attack will cause him problems. I think England wins if Pickford has a clean game.
Will the Dark Arts of soccer impact the game? If so, Italy will win. The Italians basically wrote the book on the Dark Arts and they will use every trick to slow down the England offense.
Player Duals:
Kane v. Bonucci, Chiellini - I give the edge to Bonucci, Chiellini. I don’t think there is a better defending duo in a single winner takes all game.
Jorginho, Verratti v. Rice, Phillips, Mount - I give the slight edge to England. England’s midfield is their engine. It is their skeleton and allows everything else to happen.
Stones, Maguire v. , Immobile - Stones and Maguire should be able to control Immobile. I don’t see Immobile getting too many chances this game, but that’s not his job on Sunday. Immobile’s main job on Sunday is to wreak choas, havoc, and to make England hate themselves, and give Insigne and Chiesa openings to score.
Walker, Shaw v. Chiesa, Insigne - THIS is going to be a battle. If Italy scores, it will come from Chiesa or Insigne. I think Walker and Shaw will be able to contain them though.
Sterling v. Italy’s Defense - I give the edge to Sterling. No one can stop this man.
My verdict:
England wins 2-1.
It’s coming home